CIO Office Note – July 2022

Monthly Update to the Insigneo-Forefront Recessionary Indicator

Our proprietary recessionary indicator which gives the probability of a US recession over the next 6 months has risen to approximately 26%, from under 10%. This is still below the 40% threshold level for a bearish tilt to our asset allocation models, and while growth risks are increasing our base case remains no recession and an acceleration in growth during the latter half of the year.

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