To say that this year has been a difficult one for investors, professionals, and everyone else involved with financial assets would be a lexiconic case of understatement.
As we write this during the final days of September, most major asset classes, with the lone exception of the US Dollar, are sitting near their lows for the year; global equity and bond indices stand below 20%, the traditional demarcation for a bear market.
Our two major predictions from the previous quarterly conference call came to fruition. We have had no recession materialize in the US, and there has been no rebound rally in financial assets. We expected volatility to continue in Q3 but to dissipate in the fourth quarter. That is no longer the case.
What has changed our view? Quite simply, the persistence of inflationary pressures in most parts of the world, outside of Japan and China.