Insight Type: Note from the CIO office

  • Operation Rising Lion

    Operation Rising Lion “will continue for as many days as it takes to remove this nuclear threat”. These were the words of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu last night when speaking about Israel’s preemptive attack on Iran to destroy the latter’s nuclear capabilities.

     

     

     

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  • After “Liberation Day” Now What?

    Although we were directionally correct with our as- sessment that the Trump Administration would choose the interests of the American Nation over the American Empire, we have been surprised by both the mag- nitude and speed of the shift.
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  • Liberation Day

    Yesterday afternoon, President Trump announced a slew of reciprocal tariffs on approximately 60 countries around the globe in what he called “Liberation Day”. His reasoning behind the move stems from what the President had deemed as unfair trade practices by other countries on the United States, where the U.S. was being charged higher tariffs on its exports than what it charged on the exports of these countries.
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  • Foreign Direct Investment in Latam – some progress, but still a long way to go. Against a backdrop of a deeply interconnected and globalized world, the influence that some countries may have on the development of others is playing a more significant role by the day.
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  • Our thoughts on the recent terrorist attack on Israel. “We are at war”. These were the words spoken by Israel’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, after the unprecedented and brutal attack perpetrated on Israel by Hamas in the early hours of Saturday morning. Estimates indicate that close to 1,000 Hamas fighters and between three and five thousand rockets descended upon southern Israel that day, in an intricately coordinated assault from the air, land, and sea. As of this writing, approximately 900 Israelis had lost their lives, including 11 Americans, as well as close to 700 Palestinians.
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  • The S&P 500 Reached Our Target, So Time for A Quality Shift US recession risk has receded in the near-term but remains elevated over a 12-month horizon. According to our modeling, the probability of a mild US recession over the next six months has fallen from 50% to 45% due largely to a stabilization in the US banking sector. In addition, the firmness in the labor market continues to defy alternative measures of economic activity which are much weaker. Ultimately, we hypothesize that labor market data will converge with the softer economic data, rather than the other way around. Over the next 12 months, our proprietary recessionary probit model is signaling an exceedingly high...
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  • Please join us today to discuss what happened with Silicon Valley Bank, the risk of contagion to the financial system, and possible implications for the Federal Reserve.
  • Recession Deferred But Not Cancelled • Recent US economic data suggest that growth remains buoyant as there is particular resilience in the labor market and strength in services. Unfortunately, stronger growth is simultaneously raising the odds of persistent inflation as the latest figures have come in...
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  • Post Fed Autopsy: What Happened? What Changed? These are the two questions that investors should be asking themselves after Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. The equity and rate markets rallied after the statement was released at 2 PM EST, but then quickly reversed course as Chair Powell spoke during...
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  • Monthly Update to the Insigneo-Forefront Recessionary Indicator
    Our proprietary recessionary indicator which gives the probability of a US recession over the next 6 months has risen to approximately 26%, from under 10%. This is still below the 40% threshold level for a bearish tilt to our asset allocation models, and while growth risks are increasing our base case remains no recession and an acceleration in growth during the latter half of the year.
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  • CIO Office Note: Navigating Market Volatility
    This year, so far, has been a trying time for investors with virtually nowhere to hide from tumultuous markets. Most financial assets have been roiled by three simultaneous sources of uncertainty: Chinese Covid-related lockdowns, the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine, and hawkish surprises to the path of monetary policy around the world.
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  • Deliberations from the Q2 2022 Insigneo Investment Committee Meeting & Growth and Market Outlook We remain cautiously optimistic that the global economic expansion will be sustained even if weakened by the current shock given the health of household and corporate balance sheets combined with tightening but still supportive policies and pent-up aggregate demand.
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